By weather.com meteorologists October 13, 2022 At a Glance A generally colder than usual winter is expected in the northern tier of states. This was aligned with the Farmer's Almanac predictions, which stated that January 2022 would be hit with frigid temperatures. An official website of the United States government. Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 18:35, In reply to sampling differences by Nathaniel.Johnson. WeatherBell is forecasting slightly above-normal snowfall, 125 percent of the seasonal average, in the Midwest, through the Ohio Valley and into the interior Northeast. The figure above shows the sea surface temperature differences between the high- and low-precipitation groups in the SPEAR simulations. (Head to footnote 6 for all the gory math details.). Despite the headlines, the winter weather predictions from both publications have a lot of similarities this year. The Ohio winter 2022-2023 predictions are predicated on this being the second year for the current La Nina weather pattern. Can MJO interfere with ENSO climate? is favored for the Southwest, eastern areas of the Great Basin, as well as parts of the central and southern Rockies. If youre struggling to identify any meaningful sea surface temperature differences in the map above, then you and I are in the same boat (5). Technically, this value also will reflect, in part, the increases in greenhouse gas increases in the simulation, but this effect on precipitation is relatively small. We have seen a stronger-than-normal jet stream throughout the Southwest, which has brought the wetter conditions this winter. the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and . They have literature on Modoki La Ninas. I like your work, but would encourage you to look up and not down for a cause of the weirdness (it's literally snowing in most of California today) that we are experiencing this year. When we divide up the observed record even further, e.g. and last updated 5:53 AM, Mar 01, 2023. This seasonal U.S. Drought Outlook map for November 2022 through January 2023 predicts persistent widespread drought across much of the West, the Great Basin, and the central-to-southern Great Plains. This can be as low as 200ft or so above sea level on some days, the Met Office explains. All rights reserved. These temperatures ranged from near-normal to 4F warmer than normal. If skies are clear, temperatures can fall gradually day-by-day because the sun is weak and there is little cloud to keep in any heat at night. Winter 2022/2023 snowfall predictions come together as the cold meteorological season is about to begin. During the meteorological winter (December 1 through February 28) of 2022-23, average temperatures ranged from 16.7F at Medford, WI (COOP) to 25.7F at Boscobel Airport, WI (ASOS). That forecast extends to some popular California ski resorts. The snowfall forecast focuses the most snowfall on the Midwest. ), and I have seen that there are a few studies that point to processes around Antarctica that could be contributing. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 16:25, In reply to Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano by Ed Ratledge. The MJO certainly can interfere with ENSO, particularly during development of ENSO through the MJO influence on tropical westerly wind bursts. Here is the forecast for the coming days. I am wondering if there is a possibility that the triple-dip La Nina event from 2020 could create some kinds of conditions that make atmospheric rivers more active, resulting in the occurrence of torrential rains over the western United States. However, climate scientists continue to investigate this topic, and hopefully we will have greater scientific consensus in the years ahead. Let us know. One way we could try to address this question is to group both the wettest and driest La Nias over the Southwest in December-January and then see if there are notable differences in the sea surface temperature patterns that occurred during wetter La Nias versus drier La Nias. The standard deviation of this set of values is 0.725 mm/day. La Nina usually forms during strong trade winds, which can tell us much about the state of global circulation. The cold phase is called La Nina, and the warm phase is called El Nino. A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10. NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted in the Western U.S. since late 2020, as well as parts of the central U.S. where historic low-water conditions are currently present. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 16:22, In reply to Other Teleconnections by Bob G. The biggest wild card in the weather for this year is the (massive) 5 to 10% greater global stratospheric water vapor content due to the injection of seawater from the Tonga volcano. A larger deficit can be seen over northern Europe and the Alps. Last month was. In turn, the NAO, PNA and AO combinations--some of which can be reasonably forecast on intraseasonal scales--demonstrate that some of our wettest winters can come in a La Nina year. Precipitation-wise, the period from November to January is expected to bring below-average precipitation and thus diminished early-season snow and rain chances in much of the southern half of the country, with the greatest chances of below-normal precipitation forecast from coastal South Carolina and Florida all the way to the shores of far Southern California. Also, CPC data reveals an East Pacific MJO episode in January. Rishi Sunak set to unveil new laws to tackle small boat crossings in Channel next week, Government WhatsApp decision-making threatens 'accountability', warns Information Commissioner, Snow and ice warning as coldest day of year so far to hit UK as temperatures plummet, continues to experience unusually warm temperatures this October, 'How bad are the pics? View the weather with our interactive map. Below we have an Official NOAA CPC probability forecast graphic, which shows the long-range forecast of the central ENSO region. 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Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 17:00, In reply to Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico by Tony Arnhold, Science & information for a climate-smart nation, torrential rains and heavy mountain snows, NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). Difference in DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) between the wettest 20% and driest 20% of Southwestern U.S. La Nia outcomes simulated by the GFDL SPEAR climate model. Flannel, hot chocolate and snowshoes are in the winter forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, which is predicting a shivery 2022-2023 winter for most of the United States. Rain for many on Saturday but becoming warm in south-east England. So, I did not see any obviously linear effect of La Nina amplitude in the observational analysis. The pattern in the map is very weak, with very small departures between the two groups. Winter 2022-23 Preliminary Forecast 5 months ago September 7, 2022 A slew of analogs is being used for the upcoming winter season. Although it's several months away yet, a typical La Nia winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according. Here is what the Met Office is predicting for the coming weeks. As its normally colder higher up in the atmosphere, when the air rises up a hill, it becomes colder, and condenses to form cloud and precipitation. As I watch another 2 feet of snow fall today in what is now the wettest winter in Flagstaff in 30+ years, a couple things stand out: The active MJO clearly has been a bigger influence on West Coast and SW weather this season. Here, I am focusing on the Southwest region south of 40 N that covers most of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, in early winter (DecemberJanuary). Turning wet and windy from the west on Monday. But that does not mean it has no impact. It says that temperatures there could drop 4 degrees below normal for the month something that could result in a damaged citrus crop and stunned iguanas. South West England weather - Met Office South West England weather South West England Bristol 6 Plymouth 8 Bournemouth 7 Exeter 6 Bath 5 Taunton 6 Barnstaple 6 Camborne 6 Dorchester 6. The forecast, which actually was released earlier than usual this year amid "growing concern over the rising costs of heating oil," warns that this winter will have people across much of the country "shaking, shivering, and shoveling." When we plug those values in, we get (0.725)2/(0.194)2 = 14, which is why I conclude that chaotic weather variations are about 14 times more important than the variations caused by sea surface temperature variations for December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation during La Nia events. Comments must be on-topic; free of profanity, name-calling, or ad-hominem attacks; and cannot repeat misinformation about climate that has been widely debunked by authoritative sources. Thanks for raising some good points! These sorts of patterns occur in the simulations I described, but they are part of the "weather noise" that gets averaged out among the 30 simulations. 16 min read. This figure indicates that the Southwest December-January precipitation was below the 1991-2020 average in 13 of 21 La Nias during the period. The southern United States is forecast to have a drier-than-normal winter season. Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle. London blanketed in 5 inches of snow as capital suffers travel chaos, The Great Dying: ancient mass extinction event is warning for society, Study reveals why mosquitos are attracted to some people more than others. Average DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) for all La Nia events from 1951-2020, defined as La Nia occurring in DecemberFebruary. The Met Office has warned that snow may appear across the north and west of the UK as early as 9 November. Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter, said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAAs Climate Prediction Center. Annual snowfall in the Twin Cities based on the modern 30-year average (1981-2010) is 54 inches, so AccuWeather's range falls between 40 and 67 inches. Alex Burkill, senior meteorologist at the Met Office, said: Its likely to be the warmest spell weve had at the end of October since 2014, when we had the warmest Halloween on record. To determine this signal, I first calculated the average of the December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation across all 30 ensemble members for each La Nia. We're just a few days into meteorological winter and something rather interesting is stirring. These milder conditions may extend north periodically, but it's possible that the cold but bright weather could return south to all parts through late March, bringing a return to drier conditions to the south. We have a proven track record of top and bottom line growth. Support your business with world-leading science and technology. From February to April, below-normal precipitation is forecast in the Southwest and coastal portions of the Southeast, but areas including Texas may see a respite from less-than-normal snowfall and rainfall. This way, we can use these anomalies as an indicator to better understand the current state of the global climate system and its seasonal development. Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored in the Southwestern United States, across the Southeastern states, and along the Atlantic coast. Everything you need to know about the forecast, and making the most of the weather. A La Nia pattern has persisted into the summer of 2022, and long-range models have been projecting a higher than average chance of a La Nia continuing into the winter of 2022-2023, before possibly weakening in the spring of 2023. More snowfall can be seen in parts of the Midwest and the northeastern United States. Regarding the "warm blobs" you mention, most studies suggest that extratropical sea surface temperature anomalies generally do not have a major impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, so I suspect that the two warm blobs you mention did not have a major impact on Southwest U.S. precipitation. As the monsoon rain band is situated south of the Equator, the Mekong sub-region . NOAA Climate.gov image, based on analysis and data provided by the Climate Mapper website. I need a storm to track south of me without occluding for once. Check out the full 2022-23 Extended Winter Weather Forecast from The Farmer's Almanac below. I did just one set of analyses focused on one particular region with one climate model, and thats why I stated up front that this is just the start of the conversation. While December was above-average as far as the temperature goes, January was a different story. Want to know how your actions can help make a difference for our planet? There are many patterns that influence U.S. weather, but only a few have a strong connection to slowly varying (and seasonally predictable) sea surface temperatures. This way, the ENSO significantly impacts tropical rainfall and pressure patterns, strongly changing the atmosphere-ocean feedback system. The February snowfall forecast indicates continued potential over the northern parts of Europe. Maximum temperature 7C. December is favored to be the chilliest month on the Eastern Seaboard, with lower-than-normal temperatures expected from the Great Lakes down into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. To analyze the effect of different sea surface temperature patterns on early-winter precipitation in the Southwest during La Nia, I first defined two groups: the wettest 20% and driest 20% of simulations. This winter it seems the temps were fairly uniform across the equator. A major weather divide is int he forecast. In the graphic below by NOAA-Climate, you can see the average snowfall pattern for weak La Nina years, as expected for this Winter season. 1 Quote; Link to comment . The U.S. Winter Outlook 2022-2023 map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains. The Met Office explains: To get cold air across the UK we need winds from the north or east. However, for the UK, being an island surrounded by the milder water, the air can often warm up slightly before it reaches our shores, and we often see rain rather than snow, or, even trickier to forecast; a mix of rain, sleet and snow.. The season will be relatively normal this year. The Met Office's three-month outlook, for example, suggests this winter is half as likely as usual to be classified as wet. The format of this forecast is simple. Glasgow and Belfast are predicted to reach 16C, although this could be followed by a period of more typical October weather. This is the part of the atmosphere where the air temperature is at 0C. This latest forecast cycle interestingly shows more snowfall over the western United States and also the Midwest. Most of Europe is forecast to have less snow depth by mid-winter. The rest of the United States is forecast to receive less snowfall than normal this month, with the expectation of the far northeastern United States and parts of the southeast. New for the 2023 edition are weather summaries and maps for all four seasons in 2023. To solidify this conclusion, I continued my investigation by calculating how much the variations in the La Nia sea surface temperature pattern contribute to the variations in Southwest U.S. DecemberJanuary precipitation in the SPEAR simulations. The official NOAA Temperature outlook points: The official precipitation forecast is also quite similar to the latest model forecasts. The firm predicts temperatures that are normal to slightly below normal for nearly all of the country from November 2022 to March 2023. But we can still see an area of more snowfall potential in the Southeast, which can be a single large event. Maximum temperature 8C. The video below shows the developing cold ocean anomalies in the equatorial Pacific as we head deeper into Fall, boosted by the strong easterly trade winds. Thank you for your question! With CAGRs of 17.4% and 12.7%, respectively, over the past 10 years. Durango Herald 3:40 AM MST on Mar 4, 2023. January 2023 La Nia update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2, SST - ENSO Region, Monthly Difference from Average, El Nio-Southern Oscillation - Indicators and technical discussions, Detecting El Nio in Sea Surface Temperature Data. which became the state's newest city in January 2022, . Seasonal Forecast for February - April 2023. The ENSO influence is spread globally through this feedback system, creating different Winter temperature and snowfall patterns. The brown bars indicate events with below-average precipitation, and the green bars indicate events with above-average precipitation. Here, I am focusing on the Southwest region south of 40 N that covers most of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, in early winter (December-January). This is an interesting question, and perhaps sometime Nat will have a chance to look into it. WARNING: Long-range forecasts are rarely accurate. For completeness, I will mention that there are other potential sources of seasonal predictability, such as stratospheric, cryosphere, land surface or radiative forcing variations, but sea surface temperature variations generally are the most important. This is a reflection of the pressure changes in the latest model forecast. Among the winter outlooks issued by meteorologists so far, most agree that the southern United States will be drier and warmer than normal, with the best chance of colder and stormier-than-normal conditions in the northern tier, Midwest and Ohio Valley. The changes in the jet stream certainly have impacted conditions over the U.S. this winter. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from the NOAA GFDL SPEAR climate model. In the Southeast, the Farmers Almanacs expected East Coast storms are more likely to bring rain, although chilly conditions that enter the region in January could cause wintry precipitation there, as well. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). We can see that the latest ECMWF forecast shows less snowfall over most of the continent compared to last months forecast for the entire Winter season.